Report Highlights
In recent summers, large forest fires have burned millions of acres and hundreds of homes across western states where drought conditions prevail. Alarmed elected officials agree that fuel loads in forests must be reduced to protect communities and restore ecosystems, but they disagree over where and how much.

In part, disagreement stems from available information that exaggerates the amount of forested land at risk from high-intensity wildland fire. Conventional wisdom holds that the greater the perceived risk, the more treatment (logging and thinning) should take place. However, the information used to make these determinations in some proposed wildland fire policies is erroneous.

In this report, we evaluate the quality of information that feeds wildland fire policy, assess the fire management challenge with a focus on community protection, and outline the first steps in a comprehensive strategy to prioritize where fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration measures are needed.

Among our key findings:

• The condition class map prepared by the Forest Service, which is the basis for proposed high-profile wildland fire policy, is not reliable.
  • It depended heavily on unrepeatable "expert opinion," which led to inconsistent classification of vegetation across regional boundaries.
  • Low resolution and scale incompatibilities in the underlying data led to overestimation of degraded conditions.
  • The use of forest-density data as a surrogate for canopy closure was inherently flawed; forest density and canopy closure are separate, unrelated measures.
• Most important, the condition class map fails to address wildland fire policy's top priority -- community protection.
• Despite widespread media attention on large fires on federal land in the West, most communities at risk from wildland fire are in the eastern United States, particularly the Southeast.
• Most threats to communities at risk from wildland fire arise on state, local, and tribal lands, not on federal land.
• The majority of forests that are good candidates for restoration are on private land in the East; only a small portion of candidate sites are likely to contain byproducts that can be sold to help offset the costs of restoration.

Recommendations
For this report, we used government data and state-of-the-art technology to map protection zones around communities at greatest risk from wildland fire. There is little doubt that fuel treatments on the 11 million acres of community protection zones we identify will be costly. That will also be the case for any lands located outside community protection zones that may require treatment for ecological restoration. It is therefore important to prioritize fuel treatments and restoration goals.

A successful, comprehensive wildland fire policy will incorporate principles of prioritization, based on reliable information; distinguish between fuel treatment for community protection and for ecological restoration; fight fires only where they have to be fought; use prescribed fire to manage fuels where it is not safe to use wildland fire; invest in local collaboration and better information and tools for wildland fire management; and monitor conditions over time. We recommend the following:

Condition Class Map

• Until data are compiled to produce a reliable condition class map, the existing map should not be used to prioritize fuel treatments across the country.

Community Protection Zones

• Individual homeowners must take action to protect themselves. Information is readily available through resources such as the FIREWISE Web site (www.firewise.org). Installation of metal roofs, moving firewood away from homes, and keeping yards clear of fine fuels can dramatically lower the probability of home ignition.
• Funding must be channeled to communities for the design and implementation of community-based wildland fire plans. The 10-year Comprehensive Strategy, facilitated by the Western Governors' Association, relies on community-based wildland fire planning to identify critical needs. In some cases, money will be needed only for homeowner education; in other cases, the less affluent will need assistance to do their part.
• Better information at the local scale must be developed to help set priorities, and funding is needed to gather that information. Rigorous application of risk evaluation criteria would help, but often information is not available on potential behavior of wildland fire, the values at risk, and community infrastructure. In some cases, gaps can be filled with census data and geographic information system or remote sensing data. Some states are moving in this direction.

Ecological Restoration
Our analysis suggests that as many as 350 million acres may benefit from restoration planning in what is known as "fire regime 1" alone. Other fire regimes also merit eventual attention. Over such a vast area, restoration cannot be successful unless approached rationally and efficiently. There is simply not enough money available to treat every acre.

On the bright side, much of this area does not need treatment. Instead, it would benefit from additional protection from logging, road construction, and other ecologically disruptive activities.

We recommend incorporation of the following three principles into a comprehensive wildland fire policy. The principles were developed during a two-year collaborative process involving forest scientists, rural community advocates, and forest activists from across the nation.

1. Ecological Forest Restoration: Enhance ecological integrity by restoring natural processes and resiliency. Restoration should focus not on individual species or the structure of ecosystems, but on ecological processes, thereby enhancing the ability of ecosystems to rebound from natural and human-caused disturbances.
2. Ecological Economics: Provide economic incentives to encourage ecologically sound restoration.
3. Communities and Work Force: Restoration, if done right, should lead to revitalized rural economies.